Only days away from the highly anticipated rubber match between Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez, the 3MoreRounds staff sits down to discuss the upcoming welterweight clash.
After the two engaged in a memorable encounter in 2004, which resulted in a disputed draw, the two did it again in another war that saw Pacquiao come away with a split decision in 2008. Now three years later, they’ll do it again at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas this Saturday night.
It’s been a little over 3 years since Pacquiao last faced Marquez. How much has each fighter advanced since then in terms of overall skills?
Ali Shakoor: Pacquiao has clearly advanced to an all-time, P4P, elite level. His power has improved, as well as his endurance. Clearly, he’s a better and stronger fighter above 140. He punches in combinations better, and has better angles and movement. He also has a better defense and chin.
Marquez has actually slowed down just a bit, but has very good power at 135. Otherwise, he does everything just about as well as he ever has. He’s a brilliant counter-puncher. But at 38, you gotta see that his speed and reflexes are just a bit on the downside.
Igor Frank: Their last fight in 2008 was spectacular. Both combatants were on top of their game. Since then, the speed and reflexes of Marquez have declined. Several years ago JMM was in a life and death battle with volume punching Juanl Diaz. In all fairness , he did knock him out, but not before going through hell and back early. Pacquiao was already a two-fisted fighter in 2008. He was on top of his game then, but in the words of well known Filipino journalist Chino Trinidad, who has been covering Manny since the beginning, Pacquiao broke through the ceiling and ascended into another dimension since 2008.
Jonathan Yaghoubi: I feel that both men have gone in the opposite direction since they last fought in 2008. Marquez has certainly not gotten better in terms of his overall skills but how could he now at the age of 38? He is not as quick and doesn’t have the same snap to his punches. He’s going to need all the power he can get to beat Manny. Marquez is still a great fighter and really has not had any need to improve his skills in the last three years.
For Pacquiao, he has really came into his own since the last time he stepped in the ring with Marquez and has taken over as the top boxer on the plane. He has become an all-time fighter by breaking Henry Armstrong’s record of five titles in five different weight classes. There is no doubt that Pacquiao has improved far better than Marquez.
Scott Tonelli: In so far as skills are concerned, Marquez hasn’t improved too much. Marquez has always been able to apply pressure, and use classical boxing skills (thanks to the teachings of Nacho Beristain) to make his fights competitive and highly entertaining. I don’t believe Marquez has necessarily learned anything new that could contribute to his gameplan against Pacquiao, but what he does have, and has always had, should be enough to make Pacquiao realize that he’s in for another fight. Although I will say that it seems as though Marquez has increased his punching power a little, I don’t expect a completely new Juan Manuel Marquez come fight night.The moral of the story here is, as the saying goes, if you always do what you have always done, you will always get what you’ve always got. Nacho Beristain won’t teach Marquez anything new for this fight, but he will keep Marquez’s natural skills in top form.
As for Pacquiao? forget about it. Everytime Manny Pacquiao comes to the ring he looks faster, counters better, and learns some new manuever that keeps his opponent on the losing end of every round. Freddie Roach has been able to successfully turn a powerful, one-handed fighter into a complete fighter with speed that has yet to truly be overcome. Although Pacquiao’s best punch is still, undoubtedly, his straight left hand, he has learned to use his right hand effectively in order to keep his opponent off-balance and confused as to his next move. However, the real crown jewel of Pacquiao’s skills is his foot work. Freddie Roach has done a tremendous job teaching Pacquiao how to effectively navigate around his opponent, and apply pressure from different angles that other fighters just do not have the skill to duplicate.
Moses Vered: In terms of overall skills I don’t beleive each fighter has changed all that much. The Pac-man is more accustomed to fighting bigger men while Marquez has become a more offensive counter puncher.
Raj Parmar: Obviously Manny has taken his game to another level and is much stronger and skilled than his last encounter with Juan. Marquez has not seen an Alex Ariza conditioned Manny before and he may be shocked when he feels the newfound power and speed combination Pacquiao now possesses. Marquez for his part has remained fairly consistent since he gave Manny the fight of his life 3 years ago. Juan has also attempted to focus on his physical conditioning with greater importance for this fight so we may also see a slightly different Marquez this Saturday, whether it’s in a good or bad way.
Speaking of their previous fights, how did you score their first two confrontations?
Ali: I didn’t really “score” the first one, but I’m okay with the draw, just by what I saw. I think the second fight was won by JMM by a couple points. Save for the knockdown, he was more durable and landed the more effective punches. He also seemed more “comfortable”.
Igor: I scored the first fight for Manny Pacquiao, because of the first round , which I scored 10-6. The second fight I didn’t score, but I think Manny got the decision because of the knockdown.
Jonathan: I had the first fight 114-111 Pacman. That first round is the sole reason why he won that fight. The second fight I had it 115-112 for Pacman again. Even without the knockdown, Manny still wins the rematch, but barely.
Scott: In their first fight back in 2004, I felt conflicted as the final bell rang. On one hand, being knocked down three times in one round round makes an astounding difference in the scorecards, and overcoming such a horrible round is a next to impossible task. However, Marquez was able to wear down Pacquiao, and use effective counter-shots to in order to bring himself back into the fight, and make it a competitive one at that. I found it really challenging to pick a winner in this fight, but I believed Pacquiao did just enough in the later rounds to earn him a split decision. However, I had no problems with the fight being declared a draw. Marquez showed a level of stamina and heart in the ring that night that inspired everyone who was lucky enough to watch the fight, and I believe that he ability to adjust to Pacquiao’s style in the later rounds made him worthy of receiving a draw instead of a loss. For the record though, I had it 114-113 for Pacquiao.
As for their second fight, that was, personally, even harder for me to score. The fight appeared dead even to me, although in my mind, and apparently the minds of the judges as well, the knockdown in the third round was the deciding factor in the fight. With a fight that close and competitive, one round can make all the difference. And in this fight, the third round made the difference for me. And although Marquez landed a higher percentage of punches, Pacquiao was able to keep himself in the fight, and barely get by with a split decision. Strangely enough, I once again scored the fight 114-113 for Pacquiao.
Moses: Had Pacquiao winning the first fight 115-110. Also Had Pacquiao edging the second 114-113.
Raj: I had Pacquiao winning the first fight and Marquez taking the second; with both being close decisions. Knockdowns have been an issue for Marquez when he faces Manny and if he goes down again he will be hard pressed to get the nod here.
Is the catchweight going to play a big part in this fight?
Ali: It will if JMM carries too much weight, like he did against Mayweather. Honestly, I think JMM should just ignore the 144 lb weight limit. That’s way too high for him. He shouldn’t even come it at 142. JMM should just pick a weight that’s completely comfortable for him, which I figure would be somewhere between 135-139. If JMM swells up all pudgy like he did against Floyd, Manny will eat him alive in a completely uncompetitive bout, because JMM would lose his speed and reflexes. Based on their recent history concerning fight night weights, I think they’ll be within a few pounds of each other anyway on the night of the fight, regardless of where they weigh in on the day before.
Igor: I am not sure. On paper it should help Marquez, because he has been fighting as a lightweight for the most part, but Manny and JMM are basically the same size and both needed to gain weight for this fight. Pacman recently said that he is very comfortable at this weight. As far as Marquez, we will have to see.
Jonathan: With the fight being at a catch weight of 144 pounds, you can bet that on the day of the fight, Pacquiao will weigh in around his normal fighting weight of about 150 pounds. Pacquiao has already gotten use to moving up in weight and has fought at 144 pounds or more for the last 2+ years. Marquez failed miserably the last time he moved up in weight as he was manhandled by Floyd Mayweather. Marquez is not even close to the hall of fame fighter if he is fighting above 140 pounds.
The extra pounds will be felt by Marquez in the latter rounds of the fight, as Pacquiao’s relentless, attacking style will wear Marquez out.
Scott: I really can’t see the catchweight being a big factor in this fight. Although I believe Pacquiao will be more comfortable at the weight of 144 pounds, Marquez isn’t completely unfamiliar with the challenges that come with fighting at that weight, and I believe he is more than capable of competing at that level. Although Marquez just had one other significant fight at this weight class, it was against Floyd Mayweather, so he can’t be judged too harshly. However, I have to give Manny the edge when it comes to this particular catch weight due to his experience fighting at this level. Pacquiao knows what it takes to be a champion in this weight class, and his knowledge of how his body will react on fight night might just be enough to give him the edge in the fight.
Moses: I believe so. Fighting over 140 pounds is just too much for Marquez who looked sluggish and slow in his welterweight fight with Mayweather. JMM best weight is probably lightweight.
Raj: I feel it will, as Marquez has altered his training due to the extra weight he needs to add on. He has brought in specialists to assist him in carrying his power and speed at the higher weight and this additional training could make him stronger in the ring as hes more muscular now than before but he may also be slower as a result. Therefore the catchweight will be playing a major part in how the fight goes
specifically for Marquez.
We know Marquez didn’t look good at welterweight when he fought Mayweather. If you were his team, what would you do differently for this fight?
Ali: Like I wrote in the previous question, ignore the weight limit. Otherwise, just forget about the Mayweather fight. Manny is much more aggressive than Floyd and available for JMM’s counters. Also, JMM and his team know Manny very well after 24 rounds of action. They should trust that knowledge base, and expect instincts to take over during the fight. One thing JMM needs to prepare for, is getting cracked harder than he ever has in his life. He should be prepared to hold on and/or dance, as opposed to letting his pride cause him to try to retaliate right away. Of course, they should also study tape to pick up on any changes in Manny’s technique, but otherwise just go in for “round 25″.
Igor: I think his team had a good idea of hiring a strength and conditioning coach. I am not so sure about the choice of the particular coach, but it was the right idea. What I would try to do would be to keep him as light as possible, sacrificing additional weight in favor of speed. Maybe even come to the weigh in at 140 pounds instead of contracted 144, because all the extra weight hindered Marquez in a fight with Mayweather.
Jonathan: I feel that Marquez’s team needs to tell him to get the Mayweather fight out of his head. Marquez has traditionally had problems with fighters who use movement effectively, and Mayweather is the best in the world at that. It was Mayweather’s significant advantages in reach and speed that made the difference in that fight, not his ability to overpower Marquez with extra weight. The fact the matter is that Mayweather would have been a terrible matchup for Marquez at any weight. He knows what to expect from Pacquiao and the speed advantage that Manny has had against bigger men like Mosley, Margarito, and De la Hoya won’t be nearly as pronounced when he steps in with Marquez.
Scott: Team Marquez needs to realize a few things about their fighter, and his previous fights with Pacquiao in order for Marquez to win it. First of all, his team needs to realize that Pacquiao WILL be much faster than Marquez. With this being said, Marquez needs to psychologically break down Pacquiao by drawing him into the slugging match we all want to see, and then use his counter-punching techniques effectively in order to wear Manny down and take away his speed factor. I believe that Pacquiao can be drawn into a slugging match when provoked, and Marquez must use these golden opportunities in order to land effective counter shots that will win him rounds. Another aspect of the fight plan that team Marquez needs to stress is body punching. The difference in speed between Marquez and Pacquiao is going to be the biggest difference between them, and if Marquez can walk down Pacquiao and land effective body shots, he will take away Pacquiao’s greatest weapon, and use his counter-punching style to finish him off. Counter-punching was the key to the first two fights with Pacquiao, and I highly doubt that team Marquez will de-emphasize that aspect this time around.
Moses: Come in lighter, around 140 lbs.
Raj: Change the way he conditions himself, which he has done. I think Juan has done a very smart thing by bringing in outside experts to help physically prepare him to fight effectively at the higher weight.
Do you feel Pacquiao will once again have a tough time due to Marquez’ counter-punching style?
Ali: It won’t be as tough of a time because JMM is slower nowadays. Also, as discussed above, Manny is so much stronger and more durable. I guy like Manny will always struggle against world-class counterpunchers(you reading Floyd???), but I don’t at all see JMM having the same success that he had in the previous two bouts.
Igor: Pacquiao’s style of fighting is tailor made for Marquez. However at this stage of their careers, JMM will not be able to handle the potent offense, speed and power of Manny Pacquiao.
Jonathan: I think it’s a little foolish to think that Pacquiao won’t have any problems against the classic counter punching style of Marquez. Both of their fights have been as close as you can get because Marquez has the style to give Manny a ton of problems. Marquez can brawl if he has to and will put on a boxing clinic when needed. Dinamita accomplishes things to hurt an opponent and a lot of things to steal close rounds. An aggressive opponent like Pacquiao is almost tailor made for Marquez as it allows him to showcase his fantastic counter-punching skills. I expect Marquez to land some of those shots on Manny to hold off that Pac Man barrage. However, I still don’t feel it will be enough to defeat him.
Scott: I do feel that Marquez has a style that can effectively hurt Pacquiao, and that the counter-punching aspect of his style is his greatest asset. Team Pacquiao needs to realize that in order to win this fight, Pacquiao needs to remain more mobile than his was in the first two fights with Marquez, and not be drawn into a brawl that will wear Manny down and make his vulnerable to counter-punches. If Pacquiao has learned his lesson, and puts more emphasis on speed this time around, he will have an easy night. However, if he allows Marquez to draw him into a brawl, he will find himself in a position where he is susceptible to the counter-punching style of Marquez.
Moses: As we all know, styles make fights, and Marquez’ highly intelligent counter-punching prowess will always give the Pac-Man problems.
Raj: I think Manny will have less trouble with Juans counter punching as Manny has made his right hand almost if not as effective as his left hand, giving him more weapons to handle Juan’s in-ring craftiness. Manny has become very explosive and Marquez could get bombed out if he attempts to take Mannys punches in hopes of returning with his own shots.
Pacquiao appears to be a much bigger favorite this time around; should he be?
Ali: If Manny had to drain himself to get down to somewhere in the 130′s, I’d say it should be an even money fight. As is, I think Manny should be the heavy betting favorite, for the reasons we’re discussing.
Igor: The odds appear to be a bit inflated. They are 10 to 1 in favor of Pacquiao right now, but there is a good reason for it. Pacquiao cleaned out the welterweight division in last several years, while Marquez competed and had some very tough fights at lightweight.
Jonathan: I think Pacquiao should be the heavy favorite but not at the odds they are giving him. At the moment, Pacquiao is a 10 to 1 favorite. At 10/1 odds, you would have to bet $1000 to make $100. While some will see it as an easy $100, let’s not forget that Marquez gave Pacquiao everything he could handle the first two times the fighters met. With those odds, a lot of people are going to be very tempted to put money on Marquez because the payout would be gigantic.
Scott: I believe he should be. Pacquiao has proven himself at welterweight many times over by now by beating bigger, stronger men with relative ease. As for Marquez, he has had one fight at welterweight, and lost a lopsided decision to Floyd Mayweather before retreating back to his natural division, lightweight. Pacquiao has, as I’ve already mentioned, become a better, more complete fighter with every passing year. Marquez still remains sharp in so far as his skills are concerned, but it does not appear from his recent fights that he has learned anything new. Another aspect of the fighters that makes Pacquiao a big favorite is age. Although being a 38 year old boxer is not as much of a factor as it used to be, there is still a six-year age difference between the two fighters, and many believe that the counter-punching skills that Maquez desperately needs in order to win this fight might have slowed the ageing fighter just enough to make him that much more vulnerable to Pacquiao’s superhuman-like speed.
Moses: He should; he is proven against much bigger men. He has carried his power well. Just look at Margarito and Cotto’s faces post-Pacquiao!
Raj: For sure, hes been pummelling guys much bigger than him in recent years; one can only imagine the punishment he may be able to lay on a fighter smaller than him like Marquez. It’s hard to picture the fighter who punished Margarito and demolished Cotto to not be able to overcome a natural lightweight fighter.
What must Marquez and Pacquiao do respectively, to win this fight?
Ali: Manny needs to just keep his anger and pride in check. I’m so glad that we likely won’t see the compassionate and glove touching “sportsman” we’ve seen in the past few fights. I’m frankly tired of that sh*t. Manny doesn’t really care for JMM, and wants to prove once and for all, that he’s the superior fighter between the two. I appreciate his desire to win emphatically, but he can’t let his emotions distract from his technique and game plan. If he just fights like he did against Cotto, I’d expect Manny to win via KO inside of 6 rounds.
Marquez is in a world of trouble, I feel. I can’t see him winning this fight at this stage of their respective careers. I think he should try to get inside of Manny’s head by talking trash at the weigh-in, then right before, and during the fight. He needs to goad Manny into making a mistake in anger. JMM should also attempt to rough Manny up, and fight a tad dirty, because Manny is capable of getting frustrated in the ring. Lastly, just perhaps he is to Manny what Norton and Frazier were to Ali. Perhaps he just has the style and chemistry to beat Manny, regardless of their respective career arcs. You could make the case that Norton beat Ali all three times. And Frazier was pretty washed up, when he gave Ali the fight of his life in Manila. JMM just may have the mojo to always cause Manny problems. That’s not something that can be easily explained in any type of non-abstract way.
Igor: Marquez must be careful and utilize his counter right hand as often as possible. Hopefully his punches will carry enough power to keep Pacquiao honest. As in the previous two fights, JMM is still a better technical boxer than Pacquiao, so he should box. Manny Pacquiao should launch a furious, fast-paced attack and see if his adversary will be able to keep up.
Jonathan: Marquez needs to focus on his defense big time if he is going to pull off the upset. There is that old saying that sometimes your best offense is a great defense. There is no boxer in the world that possesses quicker hands and more explosive punching power than Pacquiao. With that said, Pacquiao has the great ability to stop a fight with one punch. If Marquez can avoid Manny’s power punches, it will work in his favor in that Pacquiao might get a bit frustrated. Anything Marquez can do to get Pacquiao off his game should be considered a plus in his favor. Marquez must avoid a knockdown at any cost during the fight. It has cost him in both of his fights and very well could be the deciding factor in their trilogy.
Pacquiao needs to do what he did in the previous two fights and that is to enforce his power on Marquez to try to score an early knockdown. Pacquiao has not only carried his left-hand power over eight weight divisions but has made it stronger as well. If he can impose his will and power early on Marquez, he may destroy him mentally as well. If Marquez gets knocked down early in the fight, it may ruin him for the remainder of the fight.
Scott: For Pacquiao to win this fight, he must use his speed effectively to keep the stronger Marquez off balance. Pacquiao cannot afford to be drawn into a brawl that will give Marquez the chance to put his counter-punching skills to the test, as he was allowed to do in the two previous fights. Manny Pacquiao can win this fight with easy, but it’s up to him to stick to the game plan, and not let the crafty Mexican star get inside his head and challenge him to a phone booth style fight. Pacquiao must also do a better job at conserving his energy this time around, and not tire himself out within the first five round, much like he did in their first fight. The strike and retreat method should be enough to wear Marquez down, and possibly even knock him out.
As for Marquez, his approach needs to be more psychological in nature. Marquez needs to somehow draw the much faster Pacquiao into a toe-to-toe brawl that allows him to use his counter-punching skills both to the head and the body in order to wear Pacquiao down, and take away his legs. Marquez had an easier time in the last two fights with Pacquiao conserving energy, and in order for him to win this fight, he needs to take Pacquiao’s stamina away in order to make him more vulnerable to a powerful counter-punch that can change the course of the fight in a hurry. Marquez must walk down Pacquiao, and cut off the ring so that Pacquiao is not able to attack and retreat. If Marquez can stick to this game plan, and not simply “give up” because he cannot catch Pacquiao within the first few rounds, then I believe he has a chance to win this fight.
Moses: Marquez needs to fight a smart fight, not get over aggressive and slowly pick his spots. For Pacquiao he needs to attack early and prevent Marquez from getting into his groove.
Raj: Marquez needs to find a way to hit Manny and avoid any return fire. In the past two fights they exchanged quite a bit and the result was four knockdowns by Manny to Marquez. Pacquiao is stronger this time around so Juan has got to avoid those exchanges and make Manny miss all night. Pacquaio on the other hand needs to seek and destroy; he must chase Marquez down and give him no time or space to breathe. An all out war favours Manny here; he cant make this a boxing match and needs to rush the aging Marquez and blitz him with his laser quick flurries.
Prediction time…who wins and why?
Ali: Manny is simply a bigger, stronger, and more durable fighter. Just look at his legs now, compared to the last two fights. Combine that with improved technique, great speed, and more power, I don’t see this fight going past 5 or 6 rounds. A repeat of the Hatton fight wouldn’t surprise me at all. JMM is a great, first ballot, HOF legend. He’s the best Mexican fighter since Chavez. I have all of the respect in the world for him. But he’s now just a tad too slow, small, and old. His pride and fighting spirit will just expedite the inevitable.
Manny wins via 3rd round TKO.
Igor: Manny Pacquiao wins by a knock out in the middle rounds, between five and seven. Right now he is just too fast and too powerful for his opponent.
Jonathan: All the momentum is pointing toward Pacquiao and unless he chooses to fight a little wild, he should come away with the a decision victory. This is a much more complete Manny Pacquiao than Marquez has seen before and is not even on the same planet as Manny right now even though they have fought two very close fights. I wanted to be bold and go with a 4th round TKO for Manny but I will go with a decision victory.
Scott: And now for the moment of truth, drum roll please. The fans and the press were right to make Pacquiao a heavy favorite in this fight, because at the end of the night, Pacquiao is going home with a unanimous decision victory. For several of Manny Pacquiao’s recent fights, Manny has employed an effective “attack and retreat” strategy that has worked on bigger and stronger men than Juan Manuel Marquez. Team Pacquiao has no reason the fix what isn’t broken, and I believe they will use this same plan of attack in the upcoming fight. Marquez might be able to draw Pacquiao into a brawl, and if he does then he has a chance of breaking him down and defeating him. However, I’m not so sure that Manny is going to be willing to engage in a brawl that might make him look anything less than completely dominant, especially with a potential fight against Floyd Mayweather looming in the distance. I believe Pacquiao is going to play it safe this time around, possibly looking for the late knockout after he has worn down Marquez with combinations and fancy footwork. Pacquiao has made many improvements since he last fought Marquez in 2008, and those improvements will become more obvious with each passing round. Marquez will be looking to draw Pacquiao into a toe-toe fight, but this time around Manny won’t take the bait.
Moses: Pacquiao by UD with scores about 116-111.
Raj: Manny by KO or TKO, hes too strong and too fast for Marquez who may be a bit over his head in this one. Marquez is very gutsy and does not fold easily, however it is tough to picture him lasting the distance here without pulling a Shane Mosley and completely refusing to participate in the match. Juans heart, honour and courage will not let him coast to a decision loss therefore he will go down fighting within the scheduled distance as Manny seals the rivalry and their feud with a big KO win.
Source: http://3morerounds.com
