IS J.M. MARQUEZ A MUCH NEEDED CHALLENGE OR MORE OF THE SAME?

San Mateo, CA—Although the ink has not yet been laid on paper, Manny Pacquiao’s November 12, 2011, opponent is scheduled to be Juan Manuel Marquez. Pacquiao is coming off a dominant, but not as impressive as many expected, victory of Shane Mosley last May. Marquez has not fought since November 27, 2010, when he stopped lightweight challenger, Michael Katsidis, in nine rounds.

In terms of the marketing and the appeal of the fight, this matchup is by far the best matchup for Pacquiao—other than Floyd Mayweather Jr. Pacquiao and Marquez have fought twice in the past (2004 and 2008), and both of those fights were candidates for fight of the year. In fact, it took extraordinary bouts (Erik Morales-Marco Antonio Barrera III in 2004 and Rafael Marquez-Israel Vasquez III) to usurp fight of the year honors from both Pacquiao-Marquez bouts. Both fights were extremely close and boxing fans have still debate who should have won both fights. The first fight in 2004 ended in a draw after Pacquiao scored 3 first round knockdown. The second fight was a one-point win for Pacquiao due to Pacquiao dropping Marquez in the 3rd round.

The fight is very much personal to both Marquez and Pacquiao. Any fan that walks up to Marquez and asks him about Pacquiao will get the same response—that Marquez beat Pacquiao twice. During the post-fight press conference for the second fight, Marquez and team described the decision as another black eye to the sport of boxing, which sent Pacquiao’s promoter, Bob Arum, into a verbal tirade where he said “what Nacho (Beristain) says is crap!” That did not go over very well by Team Marquez, who walked out on the press conference immediately after Arum’s comments. (view the confrontation here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSRw_k19q90&feature=youtu.be).

The rivalry continued in the Philippines, where Gerry Penalosa had a fight in 2008, and both Marquez and Pacquiao were in attendance. In Philippine National T.V., Marquez confronted Pacquiao and challenged him to a third fight. Pacquiao was already scheduled to take on David Diaz later that year. At the time, Manny did not appreciate Marquez’s public challenge and felt disrespect not for the challenge, but for Marquez not respecting the decision made by the judges in a close fight. If you ask Pacquiao for a straight answer on his thoughts of Marquez, he’d tell you that Marquez has pissed him off on more than one occasion—maybe more so than Mayweather.

Pacquiao moved on to score historic wins over De La Hoya, Hatton, Cotto, and Margarito. Marquez moved on to dominate the lightweight division—with the exception of a loss to Mayweather at Welterweight in 2009.

Fast forward to today, Marquez is pretty much in the same position he was after he lost to Pacquiao in 2008—the lightweight champion. Pacquiao, on the other hand, is now a full fledge Welterweight and out of opponents. Marquez is the last man standing at this point as an opponent that could challenge Pacquiao. Other possible Pacquiao opponents like Tim Bradley, Amir Kahn, Victor Ortiz, and Robert Guerrero are either already scheduled in fights later this year or is still a couple fights away from becoming possible opponents..

Which brings us to the ultimate question—how dangerous is Marquez going to be coming into this rubber match. Will Marquez be the Marquez of 2008 that gave Pacquiao the toughest fight of his career? Or will Marquez be like Pacquiao’s last three opponents Joshua Clottey, Antonio Margarito, and Shane Mosley—over-matched with no chance to win?

Sportsbooks are of the opinion that Marquez has very little chance. Pacquiao has been listed early as high as an 8-1 favorite over Marquez. This is likely based on Marquez’s horrible performance at 147 pounds against Mayweather. Marquez’s added weight caused him to not only be slow in the ring, but also react slowly and not be as sharp as he was at lightweight. Marquez has not been the most active fighter as well because he has only fought twice since the Mayweather fight. He was unable to stop Juan Diaz in a rematch of a first fight where Marquez knocked out Diaz. In his last fight, Marquez was dropped and hurt badly in a victory over Michael Katsidis, a fringe contender at best.

On the other spectrum, Marquez may just have Manny’s number and knows how to be effective against Pacquiao. Despite the weight, the age, and Pacquiao’s improvement as a fighter, Marquez will always have the style to give Pacquiao hell in the ring. Marquez has proved it in the ring against Pacquiao before where he was one point away from winning both of the fights. Marquez is also a better fighter than Mosley, Clottey, and Margarito. Marquez has a better resume and has accomplished more than those other fighters. Marquez can even argue that he is the best fighter Pacquiao has fought since he fought Pacquiao back in 2008.

At this point either argument may end up being 100% correct by the time November 12, 2011, rolls along. One thing for sure, the bout will draw massive interest and will be generate millions of dollars. Whether that translates to a competitive fight in the ring, no one knows at this point. However, we may get a initial glimpse of what Marquez has left above 135lbs on July 16, 2011, when he makes his 140lbs debut against journeyman fighter, Likar Ramos.

The bout is intended to be a tune-up and it is highly unlikely Marquez will struggle against Ramos. During the weigh-in, Marquez weighed in at 138 pounds. The Pacquiao-Marquez bout is scheduled to be at a catch-weight of 144 pounds. Marquez made the mistake of weighing in at 142 pounds against Mayweather when Marquez jumped from 135lbs to 142lbs. It will be interesting to see how Marquez looks at 138lbs and whether Marquez intends to weigh-in at 138lbs against Pacquiao, who will have no problems making 144lbs.

Source: PhilBoxing.com